Price of emission credits (EREs)
How is the price of emission reduction units (EREs) determined?
The price of an emission credit (ERE) is the outcome of a market mechanism governed by the Dutch Emission Authority to accelerate the decarbonisation of the transport sector. The ERE price is fully determined by supply and demand and is therefore not fixed.
Below, we explain the key factors that drive the ERE price and provide a calculation example to show what this can mean for your organisation.
1. The market mechanism: supply and demand
The ERE system operates as a trading mechanism managed by the Dutch Emission Authority through the Energy for Transport Registry (Register Energie voor Vervoer, REV)
Demand (buyers): obligation
Demand for EREs is created by the renewable energy obligation imposed on fuel suppliers. By law, they must demonstrate that a growing share of energy used for transport is renewable.
This obligation has recently shifted from an annual required volume of renewable energy (in GJ) to a required level of CO₂ reduction, formally referred to as CO₂ equivalent lifecycle emission reduction. This change marked the end of the renewable fuel unit (HBE) and the introduction of the emission credit (ERE) as of 2026.
Fuel suppliers must therefore hold sufficient EREs each year to demonstrate compliance. For the road transport obligation, only EREs generated from renewable energy supplied to road transport destinations are eligible.
The required share of emission reduction increases annually, for example from 14.4 percent in 2026 to 27.1 percent in 2030. This steady increase directly drives demand for ERE emission credits.
Fuel suppliers can meet their obligation either by generating EREs themselves through renewable energy deliveries, or by purchasing road transport EREs from parties with surplus or voluntarily claimed EREs.
Supply (sellers): claimed credits
Supply comes from companies that deliver renewable energy to the transport sector, such as biofuels or electricity, and register these deliveries in the REV. One ERE represents one kilogram of avoided CO₂ emissions.
For electricity supplied to transport, the number of EREs is calculated as follows:
Number of EREs = delivered electricity [kWh] × renewable share [%] × 183 [g/MJ] × 3.6 [MJ/kWh] ÷ 1,000
Where:
Delivered electricity is the amount of electricity supplied in kWh
The renewable share is either the Dutch grid average (46.4% in 2025) or 100%, depending on whether grid electricity or on-site renewable electricity is supplied
183 g/MJ is the EU-wide fossil reference value against which renewable electricity reduces emissions
3.6 converts kWh to MJ
1,000 converts grams to kilograms
2. Factors influencing the value of EREs
The ERE price is market-driven and impacted by several external factors.
A. Biofuels
The ERE market is traditionally dominated by biofuels, which account for a large share of total ERE supply. As a result, developments in biofuel markets strongly influence ERE pricing.
Advanced biofuels are normally price-setting. An increase in the supply of low-cost biofuels, for example through imports from Southeast Asia, can raise the overall ERE supply and put downward pressure on prices. Disruptions in biofuel production, logistics, or trade can have the opposite effect.
B. Policy rules and regulatory changes
Policy design directly affects ERE supply and pricing through calculation rules and limits intended to promote or restrict certain energy carriers.
In earlier systems, renewable electricity benefited from a multiplication factor, for example a factor of four. Under the current framework, electricity is assessed against a fixed fossil reference value of 183 grams of CO₂ per MJ.
Double counting also played a role. Certain biofuels made from so-called Annex IX feedstocks, such as waste and residues, were allowed to count twice toward targets, effectively doubling their ERE supply on paper.
C. The impact of electric transport
The increasing use of electricity in transport, including public charging infrastructure, warehouses, and potentially home charging, is becoming an increasingly important source of EREs and contributes to supply growth.
Within the Energy for Transport system, electricity is an alternative for advanced biofuels as a source of EREs. The inclusion of home charging increases total electricity volumes and can therefore influence supply and pricing. For now, however, biofuel supply remains the dominant price driver.
3. Current value and future developments
Historically, the ERE price, previously the HBE price, has shown significant fluctuation.
In 2024, prices ranged roughly between €7 and €13 per HBE. Over the past year, prices fluctuated between €8 and €19, with a three-year average of around €12.
As of 1 January 2026, the HBE system has been replaced by emission credits (EREs) under the European RED III framework. The focus has shifted from energy volume to actual lifecycle CO₂ reduction. Combined with sector-specific markets for road transport, inland shipping, and maritime transport, this is expected to further shape ERE price development over time.
Calculate your potential ERE revenue
With our calculation tool, companies can estimate their potential ERE revenue in three ways:
Based on known electricity consumption
Based on estimated consumption derived from fleet size, mileage, and efficiency
Based on estimated consumption derived from fleet size and electricity use per vehicle
All parameters can be adjusted to reflect the specific situation of your organisation.
Please note that these revenues represent gross profit. At a profit margin of 10 percent, a company would need to generate ten times this amount in turnover to achieve an equivalent profit.
Example calculation
Assumption: electricity consumption is estimated based on fleet size and electricity use per vehicle.
A company with four electric vans, each consuming 25 MWh per year, and four electric passenger cars, each consuming 5 MWh per year, could generate:
Total revenue: €10,800
Total electricity: 120 MWh
Revenue per MWh: €90
Revenue per kWh: €0.09
Disclaimer: These figures are based on an assumed ERE price of €0.35. Actual prices typically range between €0.20 and €0.50 and depend on buyer availability and approval by the NEa. No rights can be derived from this calculation.
Conclusion
The ERE emission credit price is not a mystery. It is the result of a dynamic market shaped by regulation, supply, demand, and energy market developments. Want to understand what this means for your organisation or explore your revenue potential? Get in touch with us.
Voltico has built a software platform for both B2B and B2C and combines technical expertise with direct access to the emission credit market. This enables partners and customers to benefit from this incentive scheme in a controlled and scalable way.
Want to learn more? Contact us.
